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OFI vs Larisa — Super League 1 2018

OFI
OFI
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Larisa
Larisa
J. de Guzmán 74' (pen)
P. Staikos 2'
F. Durmishaj 83', 29' (pen)
M. Acuña 63'
3/6/2021Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 25Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

OFI45%
×Draw27%
Larisa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFI
1.40
Larisa
1.04

OFI creates 35% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 65 away

creates per match

OFI
1.28
Larisa
0.78

allows per match

OFI
1.29
Larisa
1.52

finishing

OFI+0.00on par
Larisa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFI ↓

Larisa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

OFI or draw
72%
OFI or Larisa
73%
Draw or Larisa
55%

Winning margin

OFI wins by 2+
22%
Larisa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

OFI 1+ goals
75%
OFI 2+ goals
41%
OFI 3+ goals
17%
Larisa 1+ goals
65%
Larisa 2+ goals
28%
Larisa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

OFI (draw refunded)
62%
Larisa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFI at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Larisa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.52 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFI attack 1.28 + Larisa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Larisa attack 0.78 + OFI defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

OFI scores more
45%
level
27%
Larisa scores more
28%

OFI at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "OFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
P. Staikos↳ J. de Guzmán
26'
D. Graur← A. Nikolias
29'
F. DurmishajPenalty
38'
Maksim Maksymenko
46'
T. Iliadis← M. Bertos
63'
M. Acuña↳ D. Pinakas
66'
Fiorin Durmishaj
68'
N. Solís← F. Grivas
74'
J. de GuzmánPenalty
76'
Jonathan de Guzmán
77'
R. Milosavljević← Ä. Ben-Hatira
78'
Nazareno Solis
79'
Miguel Mellado
79'
Theocharis Iliadis
81'
L. Castaignos← Adrián Sardinero
81'
N. Marinakis← Sturgeon
81'
O. Lymperakis← N. Korovesis
83'
F. Durmishaj↳ N. Jakimovski
87'
M. Nunič← F. Durmishaj

Possession

54%OFI

Shots

8OFI

Statistics

OFILarisa
Overview
54%Possession46%
8Total Shots8
5Corners1
19Fouls24
Shots
8Total Shots8
4On Target5
4Off Target3
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls24
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: OFI vs Larisa

Larisa beat OFI 3-2 in Super League 1 on March 6, 2021.

Goals: P. Staikos (2'), F. Durmishaj (29' pen, 83'), M. Acuña (63'), J. de Guzmán (74' pen).

OFI controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Heraklion.