Offenburger FV 0–1 Normannia Gmünd: Result & Stats

Offenburger FV

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Normannia Gmünd

3/2/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 21Karl-Heitz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Offenburger FV35%

×Draw23%

Normannia Gmünd42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Offenburger FVExpected goals in this matchNormannia Gmünd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.79

Offenburger FV

1.61

Normannia Gmünd

1.79

Normannia Gmünd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

2.26

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Offenburger FV

1.50

Normannia Gmünd

1.33

allows per match

Offenburger FV

2.26

Normannia Gmünd

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Offenburger FV ↓

Normannia Gmünd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Offenburger FV or draw

58%

Offenburger FV or Normannia Gmünd

77%

Draw or Normannia Gmünd

65%

Winning margin

Offenburger FV wins by 2+

17%

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Offenburger FV 1+ goals

80%

Offenburger FV 2+ goals

48%

Offenburger FV 3+ goals

22%

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals

83%

Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals

53%

Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)

45%

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Offenburger FV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Offenburger FV attack 1.50 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + Offenburger FV defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Offenburger FV scores more

35%

level

23%

Normannia Gmünd scores more

42%

Normannia Gmünd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff