Normannia Gmünd 3–0 Offenburger FV: Result & Stats

Normannia Gmünd

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Offenburger FV

8/26/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 4Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Normannia Gmünd65%

×Draw18%

Offenburger FV17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Normannia GmündExpected goals in this matchOffenburger FV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.17

Normannia Gmünd

2.42

Offenburger FV

1.17

Normannia Gmünd creates 107% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.82

creates per match

0.94

1.39

allows per match

3.03

creates per match

Normannia Gmünd

1.82

Offenburger FV

0.94

allows per match

Normannia Gmünd

1.39

Offenburger FV

3.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Normannia Gmünd ↓

Offenburger FV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Normannia Gmünd or draw

83%

Normannia Gmünd or Offenburger FV

82%

Draw or Offenburger FV

35%

Winning margin

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+

42%

Offenburger FV wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals

91%

Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals

69%

Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals

43%

Offenburger FV 1+ goals

69%

Offenburger FV 2+ goals

33%

Offenburger FV 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)

79%

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Normannia Gmünd at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Offenburger FV away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.82 + Offenburger FV defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.42

Offenburger FV attack 0.94 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Normannia Gmünd scores more

65%

level

18%

Offenburger FV scores more

17%

Normannia Gmünd at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff