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Offenburger FV vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Offenburger FV
Offenburger FV
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
R. Hertrich 83'
S. Dzikang 21'
D. Tsolakis 15'
4/26/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 29Karl-Heitz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Offenburger FV41%
×Draw22%
Freiburger FC37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Offenburger FV
1.78
Freiburger FC
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

creates per match

Offenburger FV
1.50
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Offenburger FV
2.26
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Offenburger FV+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Offenburger FV ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Offenburger FV or draw
63%
Offenburger FV or Freiburger FC
78%
Draw or Freiburger FC
59%

Winning margin

Offenburger FV wins by 2+
21%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Offenburger FV 1+ goals
83%
Offenburger FV 2+ goals
53%
Offenburger FV 3+ goals
26%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
82%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
50%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)
52%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Offenburger FV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Offenburger FV attack 1.50 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.78

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Offenburger FV defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Offenburger FV scores more
41%
level
22%
Freiburger FC scores more
37%

Offenburger FV at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Offenburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
D. Tsolakis
21'
S. Dzikang
83'
R. Hertrich

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Offenburger FV vs Freiburger FC

Offenburger FV beat Freiburger FC 3-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 26, 2023.

Goals: D. Tsolakis (15'), S. Dzikang (21'), R. Hertrich (83').

The match was played at Karl-Heitz-Stadion in Offenburg.