Freiburger FC 0–0 Offenburger FV: Result & Stats

Freiburger FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Offenburger FV

10/8/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 12Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Freiburger FC53%

×Draw20%

Offenburger FV27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburger FCExpected goals in this matchOffenburger FV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.57

Freiburger FC

2.27

Offenburger FV

1.57

Freiburger FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 34 away

1.52

creates per match

0.94

2.21

allows per match

3.03

creates per match

Freiburger FC

1.52

Offenburger FV

0.94

allows per match

Freiburger FC

2.21

Offenburger FV

3.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

Offenburger FV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw

73%

Freiburger FC or Offenburger FV

80%

Draw or Offenburger FV

47%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+

32%

Offenburger FV wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals

90%

Freiburger FC 2+ goals

66%

Freiburger FC 3+ goals

39%

Offenburger FV 1+ goals

79%

Offenburger FV 2+ goals

46%

Offenburger FV 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)

67%

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

Offenburger FV away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + Offenburger FV defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.27

Offenburger FV attack 0.94 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Freiburger FC scores more

53%

level

20%

Offenburger FV scores more

27%

Freiburger FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Freiburger FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff