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Offenburger FV vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Offenburger FV
Offenburger FV
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
J. Harter 90+4'
K. Hamka 88'
Y. Prieto 11'
H. Arutunjan 90+3'
P. Peters 56'
N. Malonga 43', 19'
9/10/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 7Karl-Heitz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Offenburger FV40%
×Draw22%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Offenburger FV
1.81
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

creates per match

Offenburger FV
1.50
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.26

allows per match

Offenburger FV
2.26
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
2.12

finishing

Offenburger FV+0.00on par
FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Offenburger FV ↓

FC Rielasingen-Arlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Offenburger FV or draw
62%
Offenburger FV or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
78%
Draw or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
60%

Winning margin

Offenburger FV wins by 2+
21%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Offenburger FV 1+ goals
84%
Offenburger FV 2+ goals
54%
Offenburger FV 3+ goals
27%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
83%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
52%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)
51%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Offenburger FV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Offenburger FV attack 1.50 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.81

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.26 + Offenburger FV defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Offenburger FV scores more
40%
level
22%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
38%

Offenburger FV at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Offenburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Y. Prieto
19'
N. Malonga
43'
N. Malonga
56'
P. Peters
88'
K. Hamka
90+3'
H. Arutunjan
90+4'
J. Harter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Offenburger FV vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen

FC Rielasingen-Arlen beat Offenburger FV 4-3 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 10, 2022.

Goals: Y. Prieto (11'), N. Malonga (19', 43'), P. Peters (56'), K. Hamka (88'), H. Arutunjan (90+3'), J. Harter (90+4').

The match was played at Karl-Heitz-Stadion in Offenburg.