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FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs Offenburger FV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Offenburger FV
Offenburger FV
L. Bohlander 84'
A. Malaj 57'
O. C. Ugondu 1'
S. Dzikang 39'
3/26/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 24Sportanlage in den Talwiesen Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen64%
×Draw18%
Offenburger FV18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
2.44
Offenburger FV
1.21

FC Rielasingen-Arlen creates 102% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 34 away

creates per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.86
Offenburger FV
0.94

allows per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.48
Offenburger FV
3.03

finishing

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par
Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rielasingen-Arlen ↓

Offenburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or draw
82%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen or Offenburger FV
82%
Draw or Offenburger FV
36%

Winning margin

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
42%
Offenburger FV wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
91%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
70%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
43%
Offenburger FV 1+ goals
70%
Offenburger FV 2+ goals
34%
Offenburger FV 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
78%
Offenburger FV (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Offenburger FV away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.86 + Offenburger FV defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.44

Offenburger FV attack 0.94 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
64%
level
18%
Offenburger FV scores more
18%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Rielasingen-Arlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
O. C. Ugondu
39'
S. Dzikang
57'
A. Malaj
84'
L. Bohlander

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs Offenburger FV

FC Rielasingen-Arlen beat Offenburger FV 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 26, 2023.

Goals: O. C. Ugondu (1'), S. Dzikang (39'), A. Malaj (57'), L. Bohlander (84').

The match was played at Sportanlage in den Talwiesen Platz 2 in Rielasingen-Worblingen.