OFC Oostzaan 1–2 Noordwijk: Result & Stats

OFC Oostzaan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Noordwijk

10/29/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 12Sportpark OFC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFC Oostzaan30%

×Draw23%

Noordwijk47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFC OostzaanExpected goals in this matchNoordwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.85

OFC Oostzaan

1.44

Noordwijk

1.85

Noordwijk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

1.24

creates per match

1.46

2.24

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan

1.24

Noordwijk

1.46

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan

2.24

Noordwijk

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

Noordwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw

53%

OFC Oostzaan or Noordwijk

77%

Draw or Noordwijk

70%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+

14%

Noordwijk wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals

76%

OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals

42%

OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals

18%

Noordwijk 1+ goals

84%

Noordwijk 2+ goals

55%

Noordwijk 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)

39%

Noordwijk (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.24 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + OFC Oostzaan defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more

30%

level

23%

Noordwijk scores more

47%

Noordwijk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff