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Noordwijk vs OFC Oostzaan — Tweede Divisie 2019

Noordwijk
Noordwijk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
4/15/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 29Sportpark Duinwetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Noordwijk64%
×Draw19%
OFC Oostzaan17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noordwijk
2.35
OFC Oostzaan
1.15

Noordwijk creates 104% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

creates per match

Noordwijk
1.70
OFC Oostzaan
0.71

allows per match

Noordwijk
1.58
OFC Oostzaan
3.00

finishing

Noordwijk+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noordwijk ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Noordwijk or draw
83%
Noordwijk or OFC Oostzaan
81%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
36%

Winning margin

Noordwijk wins by 2+
41%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Noordwijk 1+ goals
90%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
68%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
41%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
68%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
32%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Noordwijk (draw refunded)
79%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noordwijk at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noordwijk attack 1.70 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + Noordwijk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Noordwijk scores more
64%
level
19%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
17%

Noordwijk at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Noordwijk 3–0 OFC Oostzaan

Noordwijk beat OFC Oostzaan 3-0 in Tweede Divisie on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Duinwetering in Noordwijk.