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OFC Oostzaan vs Koninklijke HFC — Tweede Divisie 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
9/7/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 6Sportpark Oostzanerwerf veld 3-OSV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFC Oostzaan30%
×Draw23%
Koninklijke HFC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
1.41
Koninklijke HFC
1.79

Koninklijke HFC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.24
Koninklijke HFC
1.34

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.24
Koninklijke HFC
1.57

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

Koninklijke HFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
54%
OFC Oostzaan or Koninklijke HFC
77%
Draw or Koninklijke HFC
70%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
14%
Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
76%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
41%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
17%
Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
83%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
53%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
40%
Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.24 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + OFC Oostzaan defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
30%
level
23%
Koninklijke HFC scores more
46%

Koninklijke HFC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFC Oostzaan vs Koninklijke HFC

OFC Oostzaan beat Koninklijke HFC 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on September 7, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Oostzanerwerf veld 3-OSV in Amsterdam.