Koninklijke HFC 4–0 OFC Oostzaan: Result & Stats

Koninklijke HFC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

OFC Oostzaan

2/25/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 23Sportpark Spanjaardslaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Koninklijke HFC69%

×Draw18%

OFC Oostzaan13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Koninklijke HFCExpected goals in this matchOFC Oostzaan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.86

Koninklijke HFC

2.26

OFC Oostzaan

0.86

Koninklijke HFC creates 163% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

1.52

creates per match

0.71

1.02

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC

1.52

OFC Oostzaan

0.71

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC

1.02

OFC Oostzaan

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

OFC Oostzaan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw

87%

Koninklijke HFC or OFC Oostzaan

82%

Draw or OFC Oostzaan

31%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+

45%

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals

89%

Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals

66%

Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals

39%

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals

58%

OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals

21%

OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)

84%

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.02 · 97 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.52 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.26

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more

69%

level

18%

OFC Oostzaan scores more

13%

Koninklijke HFC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff