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OFC Oostzaan vs Katwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Katwijk
Katwijk
2/11/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 22Sportpark OFC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFC Oostzaan24%
×Draw22%
Katwijk54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
1.28
Katwijk
2.00

Katwijk creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 100 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.24
Katwijk
1.75

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.24
Katwijk
1.32

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
Katwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

Katwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
46%
OFC Oostzaan or Katwijk
78%
Draw or Katwijk
76%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
10%
Katwijk wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
72%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
37%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
14%
Katwijk 1+ goals
86%
Katwijk 2+ goals
59%
Katwijk 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
31%
Katwijk (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Katwijk away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.24 + Katwijk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Katwijk attack 1.75 + OFC Oostzaan defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
24%
level
22%
Katwijk scores more
54%

Katwijk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFC Oostzaan vs Katwijk

Katwijk beat OFC Oostzaan 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark OFC in Oostzaan.