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Katwijk vs OFC Oostzaan — Tweede Divisie 2019

Katwijk
Katwijk
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
10/5/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 5Sportpark de Krom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Katwijk71%
×Draw17%
OFC Oostzaan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Katwijk
2.55
OFC Oostzaan
0.98

Katwijk creates 160% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

creates per match

Katwijk
2.11
OFC Oostzaan
0.71

allows per match

Katwijk
1.25
OFC Oostzaan
3.00

finishing

Katwijk+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katwijk ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Katwijk or draw
87%
Katwijk or OFC Oostzaan
83%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
29%

Winning margin

Katwijk wins by 2+
49%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Katwijk 1+ goals
92%
Katwijk 2+ goals
72%
Katwijk 3+ goals
46%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
62%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
26%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Katwijk (draw refunded)
85%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katwijk at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.25 · 99 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katwijk attack 2.11 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.55

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + Katwijk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Katwijk scores more
71%
level
17%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
13%

Katwijk at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Katwijk vs OFC Oostzaan

Katwijk beat OFC Oostzaan 5-0 in Tweede Divisie on October 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark de Krom in Katwijk.