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OFC Oostzaan vs Excelsior Maassluis — Tweede Divisie 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
11/19/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 15Sportpark OFC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFC Oostzaan38%
×Draw23%
Excelsior Maassluis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
1.67
Excelsior Maassluis
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.24
Excelsior Maassluis
1.16

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.24
Excelsior Maassluis
2.09

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
61%
OFC Oostzaan or Excelsior Maassluis
77%
Draw or Excelsior Maassluis
62%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
19%
Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
81%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
50%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
23%
Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
82%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
51%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
49%
Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.24 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + OFC Oostzaan defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
38%
level
23%
Excelsior Maassluis scores more
39%

Excelsior Maassluis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Excelsior Maassluis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: OFC Oostzaan 3–1 Excelsior Maassluis

OFC Oostzaan beat Excelsior Maassluis 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark OFC in Oostzaan.