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Excelsior Maassluis vs OFC Oostzaan — Tweede Divisie 2019

Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
5/13/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 32Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Excelsior Maassluis64%
×Draw19%
OFC Oostzaan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior Maassluis
2.23
OFC Oostzaan
1.02

Excelsior Maassluis creates 119% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

creates per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.46
OFC Oostzaan
0.71

allows per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.34
OFC Oostzaan
3.00

finishing

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Maassluis ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Excelsior Maassluis or draw
84%
Excelsior Maassluis or OFC Oostzaan
81%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
36%

Winning margin

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
41%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
89%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
65%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
38%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
64%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
27%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
80%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Maassluis at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 104 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.46 + OFC Oostzaan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

OFC Oostzaan attack 0.71 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Excelsior Maassluis scores more
64%
level
19%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
16%

Excelsior Maassluis at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Excelsior Maassluis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Excelsior Maassluis vs OFC Oostzaan

Excelsior Maassluis beat OFC Oostzaan 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Dijkpolder in Maassluis.