Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OFC Oostzaan vs ADO Den Haag II — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
FT
0 – 1
ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
2/23/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 21Sportpark OFC (Oostzaan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

OFC Oostzaan53%
×Draw22%
ADO Den Haag II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
2.00
ADO Den Haag II
1.31

OFC Oostzaan creates 53% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 10 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.00
ADO Den Haag II
1.60

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.03
ADO Den Haag II
2.00

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

ADO Den Haag II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
75%
OFC Oostzaan or ADO Den Haag II
78%
Draw or ADO Den Haag II
47%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
31%
ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
86%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
59%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
32%
ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
73%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
38%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
68%
ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 2.00 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.60 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
53%
level
22%
ADO Den Haag II scores more
25%

OFC Oostzaan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "OFC Oostzaan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: OFC Oostzaan 0–1 ADO Den Haag II

ADO Den Haag II beat OFC Oostzaan 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark OFC (Oostzaan).