ADO Den Haag II 1–2 OFC Oostzaan: Result & Stats

ADO Den Haag II

FT

1 – 2

OFC Oostzaan

9/8/2019

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 3Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1 (Den Haag)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

ADO Den Haag II50%

×Draw21%

OFC Oostzaan28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den Haag IIExpected goals in this matchOFC Oostzaan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.54

ADO Den Haag II

2.10

OFC Oostzaan

1.54

ADO Den Haag II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 31 away

2.58

creates per match

1.74

1.33

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II

2.58

OFC Oostzaan

1.74

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II

1.33

OFC Oostzaan

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

OFC Oostzaan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw

72%

ADO Den Haag II or OFC Oostzaan

79%

Draw or OFC Oostzaan

50%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+

30%

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals

88%

ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals

62%

ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals

35%

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals

79%

OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals

45%

OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)

64%

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 2.58 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.10

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.74 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more

50%

level

21%

OFC Oostzaan scores more

28%

ADO Den Haag II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff