Oeste 0–1 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats

Oeste

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guarani Campinas

Daniel Borges 6' (OG)

7/5/2018

Serie B · Round 14Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Oeste40%

×Draw30%

Guarani Campinas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OesteExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.94

Oeste

1.15

Guarani Campinas

0.94

Oeste creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 121 away

0.99

creates per match

0.88

0.99

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Oeste

0.99

Guarani Campinas

0.88

allows per match

Oeste

0.99

Guarani Campinas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oeste or draw

70%

Oeste or Guarani Campinas

70%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

60%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+

17%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals

68%

Oeste 2+ goals

32%

Oeste 3+ goals

11%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

61%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

24%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)

58%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.99 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Guarani Campinas attack 0.88 + Oeste defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oeste scores more

40%

level

30%

Guarani Campinas scores more

30%

Oeste at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Daniel BorgesOwn goal

46'

Leo Melo← Nicolas Careca

65'

Caique← Matheus Oliveira

69'

Daniel de Oliveira← Rodrigo Souza

75'

Rondinelly← Rafael Longuine

82'

Henrique← Daniel Borges

85'

89'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OesteGuarani

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots9

5Corners2

12Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target3

5Off Target4

7Blocked2

7Inside Box4

9Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

583Total Passes371

479Accurate Passes270

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0