Guarani Campinas 1–1 Oeste: Result & Stats

Guarani Campinas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Oeste

Fabrício 30'

Ceará 90+1'

10/27/2018

Serie B · Round 33Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Guarani Campinas49%

×Draw27%

Oeste24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchOeste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.92

Guarani Campinas

1.42

Oeste

0.92

Guarani Campinas creates 54% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 73 away

1.18

creates per match

0.97

0.87

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

1.18

Oeste

0.97

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.87

Oeste

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Oeste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

76%

Guarani Campinas or Oeste

73%

Draw or Oeste

51%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

24%

Oeste wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

76%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

41%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

17%

Oeste 1+ goals

60%

Oeste 2+ goals

23%

Oeste 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

67%

Oeste (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.87 · 116 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.18 + Oeste defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Oeste attack 0.97 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

49%

level

27%

Oeste scores more

24%

Guarani Campinas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Fabrício

33'

Rodrigo Souza

37'

Lidio

46'

Edilson← Rodrigo Souza

46'

Felipe Cruz← Lidio

49'

Marcão

55'

Jefferson Nem← Rafael Longuine

63'

Pedrinho

65'

Ricardinho

67'

Ceará← Pedrinho

71'

Felipe Rodrigues← Rondinelly

77'

Pará← Romário Santos

83'

Marcão

83'

Marcão

90+1'

Ceará↳ Edilson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuaraniOeste

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots10

3Corners2

31Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target1

7Off Target9

3Blocked0

5Inside Box2

8Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

304Total Passes468

193Accurate Passes357

63%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

31Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Serie B: Guarani Campinas 1–1 Oeste

Guarani Campinas and Oeste drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 27, 2018.

Goals: Fabrício (30'), Ceará (90+1').

Oeste controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas.

Guarani Campinas vs Oeste — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Guarani Campinas 1–1 Oeste