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Oeste vs Cuiaba — Serie B 2026

Oeste
Oeste
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
Jenison 77'
Elton 28'
12/15/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 29Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Oeste38%
×Draw31%
Cuiaba31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste
1.03
Cuiaba
0.90

Oeste creates 14% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 56 away

creates per match

Oeste
0.92
Cuiaba
0.82

allows per match

Oeste
0.97
Cuiaba
1.14

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par
Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oeste or draw
69%
Oeste or Cuiaba
69%
Draw or Cuiaba
62%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+
15%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals
64%
Oeste 2+ goals
28%
Oeste 3+ goals
9%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
59%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
23%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)
55%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.92 + Cuiaba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Cuiaba attack 0.82 + Oeste defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oeste scores more
38%
level
31%
Cuiaba scores more
31%

Oeste at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
João CarlosCuiabaCuiaba · G
7.9

Match Events

28'
Elton↳ Felipe Marques
46'
Bruno Lopes← Maurício
46'
Éder Sciola← Matheus Rocha
59'
Maxwell← Felipe Marques
61'
Kauã← Léo Ceará
62'
Yago César← Marcinho
62'
Jenison← Elton
72'
Luan← Caio
76'
Nenê Bonilha← Rafael Gava
77'
Jenison

Possession

58%Oeste

Shots

15Oeste

Pass accuracy

52%Oeste

Statistics

OesteCuiaba
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots9
5Corners3
16Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots9
4On Target3
9Off Target3
2Blocked3
9Inside Box5
6Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
505Total Passes373
425Accurate Passes289
84%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls16
2Offsides4

Serie B: Oeste 0–2 Cuiaba

Cuiaba beat Oeste 2-0 in Serie B on December 15, 2020.

Goals: Elton (28'), Jenison (77').

Oeste controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri, São Paulo.