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Oeste vs Cuiaba — Serie B 2026

Oeste
Oeste
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
Bruno Paraíba 87'
Jean Patrick 31'
5/14/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 4Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Oeste39%
×Draw31%
Cuiaba31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste
1.07
Cuiaba
0.92

Oeste creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 55 away

creates per match

Oeste
0.99
Cuiaba
0.84

allows per match

Oeste
0.99
Cuiaba
1.15

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par
Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oeste or draw
69%
Oeste or Cuiaba
69%
Draw or Cuiaba
61%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+
15%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals
66%
Oeste 2+ goals
29%
Oeste 3+ goals
9%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
60%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
23%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)
56%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.99 + Cuiaba defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Cuiaba attack 0.84 + Oeste defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oeste scores more
39%
level
31%
Cuiaba scores more
31%

Oeste at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
ElvisOesteOeste · M
7.5

Match Events

8'
Lidio
21'
Maracás
24'
Jean Patrick
31'
Jean Patrick
41'
Alê
45'
Bruno Paraíba
53'
Bonilha
58'
Bruno Lopes← Bonilha
63'
Bruno← Roberto
68'
Djavan← Eduardo Ramos
76'
Gabriel Vasconcelos← Mazinho
77'
Matheus Pato← Marino
83'
Hugo Cabral← Todinho Júnior
87'
Bruno Paraíba↳ Alyson

Possession

61%Oeste

Shots

17Oeste

Pass accuracy

55%Oeste

Statistics

OesteCuiaba
Overview
61%Possession39%
17Total Shots11
4Corners2
13Fouls19
Shots
17Total Shots11
4On Target3
11Off Target5
2Blocked3
9Inside Box1
8Outside Box10
Passing
61%Possession39%
444Total Passes282
334Accurate Passes172
75%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls19
4Yellow Cards2
2Offsides4

Oeste 1 – 1 Cuiaba

Oeste and Cuiaba drew 1-1 in Serie B on May 14, 2019.

Goals: Jean Patrick (31'), Bruno Paraíba (87').

Oeste controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri.