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Oeste vs CSA — Serie B 2026

Oeste
Oeste
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CSA
CSA
Salomão 60'
Luan 45+4'
Pedro Junior 45' (pen)
9/13/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 9Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Oeste36%
×Draw32%
CSA32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste
1.00
CSA
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 67 away

creates per match

Oeste
0.91
CSA
0.91

allows per match

Oeste
0.95
CSA
1.09

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par
CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

CSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oeste or draw
68%
Oeste or CSA
68%
Draw or CSA
64%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+
14%
CSA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals
63%
Oeste 2+ goals
26%
Oeste 3+ goals
8%
CSA 1+ goals
61%
CSA 2+ goals
24%
CSA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)
53%
CSA (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

CSA away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.91 + CSA defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

CSA attack 0.91 + Oeste defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oeste scores more
36%
level
32%
CSA scores more
32%

Oeste at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
MazinhoOesteOeste · M
7.9

Match Events

16'
Paulo Sérgio
19'
Luan
24'
Sidimar
37'
Bruno Lopes
45'
Pedro JuniorPenalty
45+4'
Luan↳ Mazinho
46'
Bobô← Marlon
46'
Victor← Nadson
56'
Victor Paraíba
60'
Márcio Araújo← Yago
60'
Salomão↳ Mazinho
76'
Michel Douglas← Caio
77'
Caio← Bruno Lopes
83'
Glauco Tadeu
84'
Betinho
84'
Joao Paulo← Clairton Netto
85'
Tite← Luan
85'
Diego Renan← Rafinha
90+4'
Caetano← Mazinho

Possession

54%Oeste

Shots

10Oeste

Pass accuracy

49%Oeste

Statistics

OesteCSA
Overview
54%Possession46%
10Total Shots13
5Corners10
24Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots13
3On Target4
6Off Target6
1Blocked3
6Inside Box6
4Outside Box7
Passing
54%Possession46%
318Total Passes254
240Accurate Passes195
75%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
24Fouls15
5Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Oeste 2 – 1 CSA

Oeste beat CSA 2-1 in Serie B on September 13, 2020.

Goals: Pedro Junior (45' pen), Luan (45+4'), Salomão (60').

Oeste controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri, São Paulo.