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CSA vs Oeste — Serie B 2026

CSA
CSA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Oeste
Oeste
Nadson 35'
Maurício 32' (OG)
Maurício 55'
12/11/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 28Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

CSA52%
×Draw26%
Oeste22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA
1.55
Oeste
0.92

CSA creates 68% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 69 away

creates per match

CSA
1.43
Oeste
0.99

allows per match

CSA
0.84
Oeste
1.68

finishing

CSA+0.00on par
Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Oeste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CSA or draw
78%
CSA or Oeste
74%
Draw or Oeste
48%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+
27%
Oeste wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals
79%
CSA 2+ goals
46%
CSA 3+ goals
20%
Oeste 1+ goals
60%
Oeste 2+ goals
23%
Oeste 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)
70%
Oeste (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Oeste defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.55

Oeste attack 0.99 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CSA scores more
52%
level
26%
Oeste scores more
22%

CSA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
Diego RenanCSACSA · D
7.6

Match Events

32'
MaurícioOwn goal
35'
Nadson
46'
Salomão← Caetano
46'
Bruno Alves← Bruno Lopes
46'
Yuri← Lidio
55'
Maurício↳ Léo Ceará
56'
Caio
60'
Gabriel← Yago
60'
Andrigo← Rone
73'
Rodrigo Andrade← Nadson
78'
Rodrigo Pimpão
86'
Ramon Soares← Matheus Rocha
86'
Luan← Caio
87'
Yuri
89'
Victor← Rodrigo Pimpão
89'
Marcos Antonio← Pedro Lucas
90'
Rodrigo Andrade
90'
Bruno Alves de Souza

Possession

54%CSA

Shots

19CSA

Pass accuracy

52%CSA

Statistics

CSAOeste
Overview
54%Possession46%
19Total Shots7
2Corners2
15Fouls19
Shots
19Total Shots7
7On Target2
6Off Target3
6Blocked2
11Inside Box3
8Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
485Total Passes398
396Accurate Passes307
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls19
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Serie B: CSA 2–1 Oeste

CSA beat Oeste 2-1 in Serie B on December 11, 2020.

Goals: Maurício (32' o.g., 55'), Nadson (35').

CSA controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.