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Oeste vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Oeste
Oeste
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Criciuma
Criciuma
Fábio 38' (pen)
Léo Gamalho 59', 56'
11/30/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 38Arena Barueri (Barueri, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Oeste37%
×Draw31%
Criciuma32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste
1.02
Criciuma
0.92

Oeste creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 92 away

creates per match

Oeste
0.93
Criciuma
0.88

allows per match

Oeste
0.96
Criciuma
1.11

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par
Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Criciuma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oeste or draw
68%
Oeste or Criciuma
69%
Draw or Criciuma
63%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+
14%
Criciuma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals
64%
Oeste 2+ goals
27%
Oeste 3+ goals
8%
Criciuma 1+ goals
60%
Criciuma 2+ goals
23%
Criciuma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)
54%
Criciuma (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.93 + Criciuma defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Criciuma attack 0.88 + Oeste defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oeste scores more
37%
level
31%
Criciuma scores more
32%

Oeste at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
Léo GamalhoCriciumaCriciuma · F
8.3

Match Events

13'
Sandro
28'
Eduardo
38'
FábioPenalty
44'
Jussa
46'
Lukinhas← Carlos Eduardo
52'
Luiz Felipe← Diogo
56'
Léo Gamalho
57'
Matheus Cavichioli
59'
Léo Gamalho
61'
Tite← Welliton
69'
L. F. de Souza Gregorio
74'
Bruno Paraíba← Luiz Felipe
82'
Foguinho
90+5'
Adilson Goiano← Reis

Possession

43%Oeste

Shots

13Oeste

Pass accuracy

49%Oeste

Statistics

OesteCriciuma
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots12
10Corners5
21Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots12
4On Target4
4Off Target4
5Blocked4
6Inside Box8
7Outside Box4
Passing
43%Possession57%
286Total Passes392
216Accurate Passes306
76%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
21Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Oeste vs Criciuma

Criciuma beat Oeste 2-1 in Serie B on November 30, 2019.

Goals: Fábio (38' pen), Léo Gamalho (56', 59').

Criciuma controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Arena Barueri (Barueri, São Paulo).