Oeste 2–2 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Oeste

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Criciuma

Carlinhos 62'

Mazinho 43'

Nino 54'

Liel 31'

6/16/2018

Serie B · Round 11Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Oeste37%

×Draw31%

Criciuma32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OesteExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.92

Oeste

1.02

Criciuma

0.92

Oeste creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 92 away

0.93

creates per match

0.88

0.96

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Oeste

0.93

Criciuma

0.88

allows per match

Oeste

0.96

Criciuma

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Oeste or draw

68%

Oeste or Criciuma

69%

Draw or Criciuma

63%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+

14%

Criciuma wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals

64%

Oeste 2+ goals

27%

Oeste 3+ goals

8%

Criciuma 1+ goals

60%

Criciuma 2+ goals

23%

Criciuma 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)

54%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.93 + Criciuma defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Criciuma attack 0.88 + Oeste defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oeste scores more

37%

level

31%

Criciuma scores more

32%

Oeste at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Liel↳ Elvis

39'

Luiz Fernando

43'

Mazinho↳ Daniel Borges

49'

Ralph← Sueliton

54'

Nino↳ João Paulo

59'

Vitor Feijão← Zé Carlos

62'

Carlinhos↳ Danielzinho

64'

Pedrinho← Claudinho

70'

Betinho← Bonilha

76'

Alex Maranhão← Elvis

79'

Daniel de Oliveira← Mazinho

90'

Alexsandro Carvalho Lopes

90'

Alexsandro Carvalho Lopes

90'

Alexsandro Carvalho Lopes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OesteCriciuma

Overview

59%Possession41%

20Total Shots13

1Corners5

17Fouls21

Shots

20Total Shots13

8On Target6

9Off Target4

3Blocked3

8Inside Box6

12Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

529Total Passes346

438Accurate Passes243

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

17Fouls21

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2

Serie B: Oeste 2–2 Criciuma

Oeste and Criciuma drew 2-2 in Serie B on June 16, 2018.

Goals: Liel (31'), Mazinho (43'), Nino (54'), Carlinhos (62').

Oeste controlled possession (59%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri.

Oeste vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Oeste 2–2 Criciuma