Oeste 0–1 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats | Serie B

Oeste

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP

Rafinha 68'

9/29/2020

Serie B · Round 12Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Oeste42%

×Draw30%

Botafogo SP28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OesteExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.89

Oeste

1.17

Botafogo SP

0.89

Oeste creates 31% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 91 away

0.96

creates per match

0.77

1.00

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Oeste

0.96

Botafogo SP

0.77

allows per match

Oeste

1.00

Botafogo SP

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oeste or draw

72%

Oeste or Botafogo SP

70%

Draw or Botafogo SP

58%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+

18%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals

69%

Oeste 2+ goals

33%

Oeste 3+ goals

11%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

59%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

22%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)

60%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 68 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.37 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.96 + Botafogo SP defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Botafogo SP attack 0.77 + Oeste defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oeste scores more

42%

level

30%

Botafogo SP scores more

28%

Oeste at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Caique França

Oeste · G

8.2

Match Events

24'

Welliton

45'

Betinho

46'

Marlon← Welliton

68'

Rafinha↳ Matheus Anjos

69'

Fabricio Oya← Éder Sciola

69'

Bady← Matheus Anjos

69'

Matheus Alessandro← Ronald

75'

Rafinha

75'

Lucas← Rafinha

76'

Caio

79'

Yuri← Betinho

80'

Tite← Caio

81'

Elicarlos← Naldo

81'

Matheus Ferreira← Victor Bolt

86'

Kauã← Mazinho

89'

Kauã

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OesteBotafogo

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots17

4Corners9

23Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots17

1On Target8

5Off Target5

2Blocked4

6Inside Box10

2Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

346Total Passes354

232Accurate Passes237

67%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

23Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0