Botafogo SP 1–0 Oeste: Result & Stats | Serie C

Botafogo SP

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oeste

Gustavo Xuxa 12'

6/27/2021

Serie C · Round 5Estádio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Botafogo SP59%

×Draw24%

Oeste17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SPExpected goals in this matchOeste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.81

Botafogo SP

1.73

Oeste

0.81

Botafogo SP creates 114% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 10 away

1.55

creates per match

0.50

1.13

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Botafogo SP

1.55

Oeste

0.50

allows per match

Botafogo SP

1.13

Oeste

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Oeste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw

83%

Botafogo SP or Oeste

76%

Draw or Oeste

41%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

33%

Oeste wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

82%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

52%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

25%

Oeste 1+ goals

56%

Oeste 2+ goals

19%

Oeste 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

77%

Oeste (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.55 + Oeste defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Oeste attack 0.50 + Botafogo SP defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Botafogo SP scores more

59%

level

24%

Oeste scores more

17%

Botafogo SP at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Gustavo Xuxa

31'

Yan Victor← Matheus Santos

46'

Léo Ceará← Bruno Miguel

61'

Bruno Michel← Ariel

61'

Victor Bolt← John

74'

Emerson← Caetano

74'

Pará← Martineli

74'

Jeffinho← Deivid Souza

74'

Kaio Gonçalves← De Paula

74'

Marcinho← Kauã

81'

Werik← Alison

Botafogo

Oeste

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Argel Fucks

31'▲Yan Victor←▼Matheus Santos

61'▲Bruno Michel←▼Ariel

61'▲Victor Bolt←▼John

74'▲Emerson←▼Caetano

74'▲Pará←▼Martineli

Botafogo SP substitutes

VictorMichelBoltEmersonParáBolonhinRafaelParaíbaMarlonTavaresWalter

Manager: Roberto Cavalo

46'▲Léo Ceará←▼Bruno Miguel

74'▲Jeffinho←▼Deivid Souza

74'▲Kaio Gonçalves←▼De Paula

74'▲Marcinho←▼Kauã

81'▲Werik←▼Alison

Oeste substitutes

CearáJeffinhoGonçalvesMarcinhoWerikDiogoDouglãoGlaucoSalomão