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Oeste vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2026

Oeste
Oeste
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
Bruno José 90+4'
Nadson 62'
11/5/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 33Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Oeste42%
×Draw30%
Botafogo SP27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste
1.15
Botafogo SP
0.86

Oeste creates 34% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 91 away

creates per match

Oeste
0.93
Botafogo SP
0.77

allows per match

Oeste
0.96
Botafogo SP
1.37

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par
Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Botafogo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oeste or draw
73%
Oeste or Botafogo SP
70%
Draw or Botafogo SP
58%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+
18%
Botafogo SP wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals
68%
Oeste 2+ goals
32%
Oeste 3+ goals
11%
Botafogo SP 1+ goals
58%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
21%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)
61%
Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.37 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.93 + Botafogo SP defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Botafogo SP attack 0.77 + Oeste defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oeste scores more
42%
level
30%
Botafogo SP scores more
27%

Oeste at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

89
DarleyBotafogo SPBotafogo SP · G
8.2

Match Events

15'
Matheus Cavichioli← Luiz Carlos
24'
Luiz Otávio
54'
Matheus Oliveira
62'
Nadson↳ Pablo
65'
Elvis
65'
Mazinho← Roberto
68'
Júlio César← Felipe Saraiva
70'
Thiaguinho
75'
Bruno Gonçalves← Salomão
82'
Bruno José← Nadson
82'
Willian← Pablo
84'
Felipe Gregorio
86'
Caetano
86'
Darley Torres
90'
Cléber Reis
90+4'
Bruno José↳ Júlio César

Possession

48%Oeste

Shots

20Oeste

Pass accuracy

48%Oeste

Statistics

OesteBotafogo
Overview
48%Possession52%
20Total Shots19
7Corners7
19Fouls5
Shots
20Total Shots19
5On Target7
9Off Target8
6Blocked4
9Inside Box10
11Outside Box9
Passing
48%Possession52%
325Total Passes347
232Accurate Passes272
71%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
19Fouls5
6Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Serie B: Oeste 0–2 Botafogo SP

Botafogo SP beat Oeste 2-0 in Serie B on November 5, 2019.

Goals: Nadson (62'), Bruno José (90+4').

Botafogo SP controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 20.

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri.