Oeste 0–1 America Mineiro: Result & Stats | Serie B

Oeste

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

America Mineiro

Flavio 76'

10/19/2019

Serie B · Round 30Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Oeste37%

×Draw32%

America Mineiro31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OesteExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.87

Oeste

0.99

America Mineiro

0.87

Oeste creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 79 away

0.93

creates per match

0.78

0.96

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Oeste

0.93

America Mineiro

0.78

allows per match

Oeste

0.96

America Mineiro

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Oeste or draw

69%

Oeste or America Mineiro

68%

Draw or America Mineiro

63%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+

14%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals

63%

Oeste 2+ goals

26%

Oeste 3+ goals

8%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

58%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

22%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)

55%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.93 + America Mineiro defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

America Mineiro attack 0.78 + Oeste defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oeste scores more

37%

level

32%

America Mineiro scores more

31%

Oeste at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

Willian Maranhão

America Mineiro · M

7.6

Match Events

43'

49'

49'

53'

66'

Gabriel Vasconcelos← Roberto

71'

Bruno Gonçalves← Mazinho

71'

Felipe Azevedo← Diego

73'

Bruno Gonçalves

75'

Thiaguinho

76'

Flavio

78'

César← Fábio

90'

Felipe Azevedo

90'

Geovane← Matheusinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OesteAmerica

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots19

5Corners5

23Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots19

2On Target7

11Off Target9

1Blocked3

7Inside Box11

7Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

317Total Passes369

212Accurate Passes271

67%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

23Fouls18

4Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1