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Oeste vs America Mineiro — Serie B 2026

Oeste
Oeste
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
6/18/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 8Estadio Municipal dos Amaros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Oeste37%
×Draw32%
America Mineiro31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste
0.99
America Mineiro
0.87

Oeste creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 79 away

creates per match

Oeste
0.93
America Mineiro
0.78

allows per match

Oeste
0.96
America Mineiro
1.05

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Oeste or draw
69%
Oeste or America Mineiro
68%
Draw or America Mineiro
63%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+
14%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals
63%
Oeste 2+ goals
26%
Oeste 3+ goals
8%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
58%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
22%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)
55%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.93 + America Mineiro defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

America Mineiro attack 0.78 + Oeste defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oeste scores more
37%
level
32%
America Mineiro scores more
31%

Oeste at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
William CordeiroOesteOeste · D
8.1

Match Events

18'
Christian Savio← Norberto Neto
35'
Christian
39'
Lidio
55'
Alexandro
56'
Zé Ricardo
62'
Gerson Magrão← Luan
67'
Renan Oliveira← Matheusinho
75'
Raphael Indio← Danielzinho
75'
Gabriel Vasconcelos← Erick
86'
Fernando← Velicka
90'
Bill

Possession

50%Oeste

Shots

11Oeste

Pass accuracy

50%Oeste

Statistics

OesteAmerica
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots13
7Corners6
16Fouls17
Shots
11Total Shots13
4On Target2
4Off Target5
3Blocked6
8Inside Box6
3Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
394Total Passes388
294Accurate Passes296
75%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Oeste vs America Mineiro

Oeste and America Mineiro drew 0-0 in Serie B on June 18, 2017.

Oeste controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal dos Amaros in Itapolis.