Odra Wodzislaw 1–3 Miedź Legnica II: Result & Stats

Odra Wodzislaw

FT

1 – 3

Miedź Legnica II

8/14/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw38%

×Draw23%

Miedź Legnica II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra WodzislawExpected goals in this matchMiedź Legnica II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.72

Odra Wodzislaw

1.71

Miedź Legnica II

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

1.68

creates per match

1.26

2.18

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw

1.68

Miedź Legnica II

1.26

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw

2.18

Miedź Legnica II

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Miedź Legnica II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw

61%

Odra Wodzislaw or Miedź Legnica II

77%

Draw or Miedź Legnica II

62%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+

20%

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals

82%

Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals

51%

Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals

24%

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals

82%

Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals

51%

Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)

50%

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Miedź Legnica II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Miedź Legnica II attack 1.26 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more

38%

level

23%

Miedź Legnica II scores more

39%

Miedź Legnica II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff