Miedź Legnica II 1–0 Odra Wodzislaw: Result & Stats

Miedź Legnica II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Odra Wodzislaw

3/13/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Miedź Legnica II53%

×Draw21%

Odra Wodzislaw27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedź Legnica IIExpected goals in this matchOdra Wodzislaw

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.49

Miedź Legnica II

2.16

Odra Wodzislaw

1.49

Miedź Legnica II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

2.02

creates per match

1.35

1.62

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Miedź Legnica II

2.02

Odra Wodzislaw

1.35

allows per match

Miedź Legnica II

1.62

Odra Wodzislaw

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedź Legnica II ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Miedź Legnica II or draw

73%

Miedź Legnica II or Odra Wodzislaw

79%

Draw or Odra Wodzislaw

47%

Winning margin

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+

31%

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals

88%

Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals

63%

Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals

36%

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals

77%

Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals

44%

Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)

67%

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedź Legnica II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedź Legnica II attack 2.02 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.16

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Miedź Legnica II scores more

53%

level

21%

Odra Wodzislaw scores more

27%

Miedź Legnica II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff