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Odra Wodzislaw vs Lechia Zielona Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
5/20/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw33%
×Draw23%
Lechia Zielona Góra45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.54
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.84

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.50

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.41

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
55%
Odra Wodzislaw or Lechia Zielona Góra
77%
Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra
67%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
15%
Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
79%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
45%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
20%
Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
84%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
55%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
42%
Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
33%
level
23%
Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
45%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Wodzislaw 2–1 Lechia Zielona Góra

Odra Wodzislaw beat Lechia Zielona Góra 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.