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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
3 – 0
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
10/2/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra53%
×Draw22%
Odra Wodzislaw25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.96
Odra Wodzislaw
1.27

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 54% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.62
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.18
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
75%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Odra Wodzislaw
78%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
47%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
31%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
86%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
58%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
31%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
72%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
36%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
68%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.96

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
53%
level
22%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
25%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Lechia Zielona Góra 3–0 Odra Wodzislaw

Lechia Zielona Góra beat Odra Wodzislaw 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.