Odra Wodzislaw 1–0 Kluczbork: Result & Stats

Odra Wodzislaw

FT

1 – 0

Kluczbork

10/23/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw33%

×Draw22%

Kluczbork45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra WodzislawExpected goals in this matchKluczbork

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.88

Odra Wodzislaw

1.59

Kluczbork

1.88

Kluczbork creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

1.68

creates per match

1.57

2.18

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw

1.68

Kluczbork

1.57

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw

2.18

Kluczbork

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Kluczbork+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Kluczbork →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw

55%

Odra Wodzislaw or Kluczbork

78%

Draw or Kluczbork

67%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+

16%

Kluczbork wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals

80%

Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals

47%

Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals

21%

Kluczbork 1+ goals

85%

Kluczbork 2+ goals

56%

Kluczbork 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)

42%

Kluczbork (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Kluczbork away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Kluczbork defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kluczbork attack 1.57 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more

33%

level

22%

Kluczbork scores more

45%

Kluczbork at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff