Kluczbork 2–4 Odra Wodzislaw: Result & Stats

Kluczbork

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Odra Wodzislaw

5/28/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kluczbork55%

×Draw21%

Odra Wodzislaw24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KluczborkExpected goals in this matchOdra Wodzislaw

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.35

Kluczbork

2.12

Odra Wodzislaw

1.35

Kluczbork creates 57% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

1.95

creates per match

1.35

1.36

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Kluczbork

1.95

Odra Wodzislaw

1.35

allows per match

Kluczbork

1.36

Odra Wodzislaw

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw

76%

Kluczbork or Odra Wodzislaw

79%

Draw or Odra Wodzislaw

45%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+

33%

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals

88%

Kluczbork 2+ goals

62%

Kluczbork 3+ goals

35%

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals

74%

Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals

39%

Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)

69%

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.12

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kluczbork scores more

55%

level

21%

Odra Wodzislaw scores more

24%

Kluczbork at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff