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Odra Wodzislaw vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
4/15/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw42%
×Draw22%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.80
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.13

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.93

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
64%
Odra Wodzislaw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
78%
Draw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
58%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
22%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
83%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
54%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
27%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
81%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
49%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
54%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.80

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.13 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
42%
level
22%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
36%

Odra Wodzislaw at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odra Wodzislaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Wodzislaw vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Odra Wodzislaw and Karkonosze Jelenia Góra drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.