Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2–2 Odra Wodzislaw

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

FT

2 – 2

Odra Wodzislaw

9/22/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra50%

×Draw23%

Odra Wodzislaw28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karkonosze Jelenia GóraExpected goals in this matchOdra Wodzislaw

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.35

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.88

Odra Wodzislaw

1.35

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra creates 39% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

1.46

creates per match

1.35

1.34

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.46

Odra Wodzislaw

1.35

allows per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.34

Odra Wodzislaw

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw

72%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or Odra Wodzislaw

77%

Draw or Odra Wodzislaw

50%

Winning margin

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+

28%

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals

85%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals

56%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals

29%

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals

74%

Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals

39%

Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)

64%

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.46 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.88

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more

50%

level

23%

Odra Wodzislaw scores more

28%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Karkonosze Jelenia Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff