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Odra Wodzislaw vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
8/27/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Gosław Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw38%
×Draw22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.76
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
61%
Odra Wodzislaw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
78%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
62%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
20%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
83%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
52%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
26%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
83%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
53%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
49%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.76

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
38%
level
22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
39%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Wodzislaw vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Odra Wodzislaw beat Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Gosław Sports Center in Wodzisław Śląski.