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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
5/14/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry49%
×Draw22%
Odra Wodzislaw29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.89
Odra Wodzislaw
1.40

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 35% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
71%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Odra Wodzislaw
78%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
51%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
27%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
85%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
56%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
29%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
75%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
41%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
63%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.89

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
49%
level
22%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
29%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Odra Wodzislaw

Odra Wodzislaw beat Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.