Odra Wodzislaw 2–1 Górnik Zabrze II: Result & Stats

Odra Wodzislaw

FT

2 – 1

Górnik Zabrze II

9/4/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw35%

×Draw22%

Górnik Zabrze II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra WodzislawExpected goals in this matchGórnik Zabrze II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.94

Odra Wodzislaw

1.71

Górnik Zabrze II

1.94

Górnik Zabrze II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

1.68

creates per match

1.70

2.18

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw

1.68

Górnik Zabrze II

1.70

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw

2.18

Górnik Zabrze II

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Górnik Zabrze II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw

56%

Odra Wodzislaw or Górnik Zabrze II

78%

Draw or Górnik Zabrze II

65%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+

17%

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals

82%

Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals

51%

Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals

24%

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals

86%

Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals

58%

Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)

44%

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Górnik Zabrze II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.70 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more

35%

level

22%

Górnik Zabrze II scores more

44%

Górnik Zabrze II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff