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Górnik Zabrze II vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
4/9/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II54%
×Draw21%
Odra Wodzislaw24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze II
2.04
Odra Wodzislaw
1.30

Górnik Zabrze II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.79
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.25
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw
76%
Górnik Zabrze II or Odra Wodzislaw
79%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
46%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
32%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
87%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
60%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
33%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
73%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
37%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
69%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more
54%
level
21%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
24%

Górnik Zabrze II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Zabrze II vs Odra Wodzislaw

Górnik Zabrze II and Odra Wodzislaw drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zabrze.