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Odra Wodzislaw vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
3 – 1
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
11/6/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Gosław Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw50%
×Draw21%
Gać Oława29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
2.13
Gać Oława
1.59

Odra Wodzislaw creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
71%
Odra Wodzislaw or Gać Oława
79%
Draw or Gać Oława
50%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
29%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
88%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
63%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
35%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
80%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
47%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
63%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.13

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
50%
level
21%
Gać Oława scores more
29%

Odra Wodzislaw at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Odra Wodzislaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Wodzislaw 3–1 Gać Oława

Odra Wodzislaw beat Gać Oława 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Gosław Sports Center in Wodzisław Śląski.