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Gać Oława vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
K. Zelazowski 88'
W. Piejak 82'
P. Zdunek 52'
J. Borek 45'
K. Krzyzok 15'
6/11/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 33Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gać Oława39%
×Draw22%
Odra Wodzislaw39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.79
Odra Wodzislaw
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
61%
Gać Oława or Odra Wodzislaw
78%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
61%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
20%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
83%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
53%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
26%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
83%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
53%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
50%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.79

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gać Oława scores more
39%
level
22%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
39%

Gać Oława at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gać Oława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
K. Krzyzok
45'
J. Borek
52'
P. Zdunek
82'
W. Piejak
88'
K. Zelazowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gać Oława 0–5 Odra Wodzislaw

Odra Wodzislaw beat Gać Oława 5-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 11, 2022.

Goals: K. Krzyzok (15'), J. Borek (45'), P. Zdunek (52'), W. Piejak (82'), K. Zelazowski (88').

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.