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Odra Wodzislaw vs Carina Gubin — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
6/17/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw33%
×Draw22%
Carina Gubin44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.59
Carina Gubin
1.85

Carina Gubin creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 85 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Carina Gubin
1.51

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Carina Gubin
1.51

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Carina Gubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
56%
Odra Wodzislaw or Carina Gubin
78%
Draw or Carina Gubin
67%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
16%
Carina Gubin wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
80%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
47%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
21%
Carina Gubin 1+ goals
84%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
55%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
43%
Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Carina Gubin defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

Carina Gubin attack 1.51 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
33%
level
22%
Carina Gubin scores more
44%

Carina Gubin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Wodzislaw 5–3 Carina Gubin

Odra Wodzislaw beat Carina Gubin 5-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.