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Carina Gubin vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
0 – 1
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
8/28/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carina Gubin49%
×Draw23%
Odra Wodzislaw28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.83
Odra Wodzislaw
1.32

Carina Gubin creates 39% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
72%
Carina Gubin or Odra Wodzislaw
77%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
51%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
27%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
84%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
54%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
28%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
73%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
38%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
64%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
49%
level
23%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
28%

Carina Gubin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carina Gubin vs Odra Wodzislaw

Odra Wodzislaw beat Carina Gubin 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.