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Odra Petřkovice vs Hlučín — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
CANC
15:00
Hlučín
Hlučín
5/2/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 26Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice40%
×Draw25%
Hlučín35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.50
Hlučín
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Hlučín
1.67

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Hlučín
1.36

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Hlučín+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Hlučín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
65%
Odra Petřkovice or Hlučín
75%
Draw or Hlučín
60%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
19%
Hlučín wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
78%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
44%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
19%
Hlučín 1+ goals
75%
Hlučín 2+ goals
41%
Hlučín 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
53%
Hlučín (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Hlučín away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Hlučín defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hlučín attack 1.67 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
40%
level
25%
Hlučín scores more
35%

Odra Petřkovice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Odra Petřkovice vs Hlučín — Match Preview

Odra Petřkovice face Hlučín on May 2, 2021 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Odra Petřkovice host Hlučín at Stadion Petřkovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.