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Hlučín vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hlučín
Hlučín
FT
1 – 2
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
P. Kundratek 77'
M. Neumann 51'
L. Ptacek 3'
10/2/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 9Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hlučín34%
×Draw24%
Odra Petřkovice42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlučín
1.39
Odra Petřkovice
1.58

Odra Petřkovice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hlučín
1.69
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Hlučín
1.34
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Hlučín+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlučín ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hlučín or draw
58%
Hlučín or Odra Petřkovice
76%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
66%

Winning margin

Hlučín wins by 2+
15%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hlučín 1+ goals
75%
Hlučín 2+ goals
40%
Hlučín 3+ goals
16%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
79%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
47%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hlučín (draw refunded)
44%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlučín at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlučín attack 1.69 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.39

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Hlučín defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hlučín scores more
34%
level
24%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
42%

Odra Petřkovice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. Ptacek
23'
J. Mac
31'
D. Mladek
46'
L. Lehnert← L. Lehnert
51'
M. Neumann
54'
R. Dostal← R. Dostal
54'
T. Buchvaldek← T. Buchvaldek
59'
59'
T. Dostal← T. Dostal
59'
D. Dydowicz← D. Dydowicz
66'
J. Ptacek← J. Ptacek
71'
T. Vengrinek
72'
K. Hudeczek← K. Hudeczek
77'
P. Kundratek
78'
J. Massaniec
82'
86'
L. Raab← L. Raab

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hlučín vs Odra Petřkovice

Odra Petřkovice beat Hlučín 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 2, 2020.

Goals: L. Ptacek (3'), M. Neumann (51'), P. Kundratek (77').

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín in Hlučín.