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Odra Petřkovice vs Hanácká — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
CANC
15:30
Hanácká
Hanácká
6/13/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 32Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice35%
×Draw24%
Hanácká41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.45
Hanácká
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Hanácká
2.04

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Hanácká
1.25

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Hanácká+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Hanácká →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
59%
Odra Petřkovice or Hanácká
76%
Draw or Hanácká
65%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
16%
Hanácká wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
77%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
42%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
18%
Hanácká 1+ goals
79%
Hanácká 2+ goals
47%
Hanácká 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
46%
Hanácká (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Hanácká away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.25 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Hanácká defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hanácká attack 2.04 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
35%
level
24%
Hanácká scores more
41%

Hanácká at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Odra Petřkovice face Hanácká (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Odra Petřkovice hosting Hanácká. Match starts June 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Odra Petřkovice host Hanácká at Stadion Petřkovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.