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Hanácká vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hanácká
Hanácká
CANC
13:00
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
3/7/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 15Stadion SK Hanácká Slavia Kroměříž

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hanácká44%
×Draw24%
Odra Petřkovice32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanácká
1.71
Odra Petřkovice
1.42

Hanácká creates 20% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hanácká
2.33
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Hanácká
1.00
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Hanácká+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanácká ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hanácká or draw
68%
Hanácká or Odra Petřkovice
76%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
56%

Winning margin

Hanácká wins by 2+
23%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hanácká 1+ goals
82%
Hanácká 2+ goals
51%
Hanácká 3+ goals
24%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
76%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
41%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hanácká (draw refunded)
58%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanácká at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 46 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanácká attack 2.33 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Hanácká defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hanácká scores more
44%
level
24%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
32%

Hanácká at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hanácká face Odra Petřkovice (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Hanácká hosting Odra Petřkovice. Match starts March 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hanácká host Odra Petřkovice at Stadion SK Hanácká Slavia Kroměříž.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.